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Aluminium Gimme smelter - Are more big deals ahead ?

THE notion that aluminium is merely a dull, grey metal has taken something of a hammering lately. A dramatic string of mergers, bids and counterbids has enlivened an industry that is proving to be as malleable as its end product. On July 12th Rio Tinto, one of the world's biggest mining firms, comprehensively trumped Alcoa's hostile $27 billion offer for Alcan, a Canadian rival, by stumping up $38.1 billion in cash. The deal will make Rio Tinto the world's top aluminium producer (see chart), ahead of Russia's RUSAL, which was itself involved in a big merger in March. And the flurry of activity in the industry might even result in Alcoa itself being gobbled up. BHP Billiton, an Anglo-Australian mining giant sitting on a pile of money earned from high metal prices, is thought to be mulling a $40 billion bid for the American aluminium-maker.

What explains all this dealmaking? Tom Albanese, Rio Tinto's boss, is confident that the huge sum he is paying for Alcan is justified, in large part because of the situation in China. It is expected to consume 12.5m tonnes of aluminium this year out of a world total of 40m tonnes. But although Chinese demand has pushed up the aluminium price to twice its level of 18 months ago, the price has hovered around $2,700 a tonne for some months.

Where it will go next is the subject of much debate. Until a few years ago China was a net importer of aluminium. Since then both production and consumption have exploded to satisfy the demands of the expanding economy. But production outpaced consumption, making China a net exporter. Jim Lennon, an analyst with Macquarie Bank, points out that aluminium plants can be built far more quickly there than anywhere else in the world, and at about a quarter of the cost.

China is home to Chalco, one of the giants of the aluminium business, and to over a third of the world's smelters. But although plants can be built cheaply in China, production costs are among the highest in the world. China relies on expensive imported alumina, the refined version of bauxite, the ore from which aluminium is made. And smelting it uses vast amounts of energy, accounting for one-third of the costs in an average plant. The government has tried to rein in aluminium producers on the ground that they are hogging prized energy resources that it would prefer to divert to other parts of the economy. Last year a tax rebate on the export of aluminium ingots was eliminated, and then an export tax was imposed.

But China's policymakers may fail to stem the power drain. Ingot exports have slowed down in recent months but exports of semi-finished and finished aluminium products, which are much harder to track, may have filled the gap. Demand for aluminium grew by 23% in China in 2006 and is expected to expand by 30% this year. The government may try to intervene to prevent production from expanding commensurately; but it may not succeed.

Even so, many industry watchers believe that China will once again become a net importer of aluminium. On current trends world demand for the metal will reach 70m tonnes by 2020. But where will the extra supply come from? There are few places with the abundant cheap energy needed to make the stuff. Alcan is probably best placed to take advantage of growing demand, because a deal with Quebec, its home province, provides it with cheap, plentiful hydro-electric power. Hence its appeal to Rio Tinto.

What of BHP Billiton's supposed interest in Alcoa? Unlike Alcan, the American firm does not have access to bargain-priced power supplies. And along with its smelters and bauxite deposits, it has a raft of less tasty downstream assets, such as a packaging business with pitiful margins. But BHP Billiton could team up with a private-equity buyer to offload the less desirable parts of Alcoa, and some analysts reckon that of all the potential suitors it is in the best position to extract savings from a deal. So it might still prove enticing, particularly if BHP Billiton shares Mr Albanese's cheerful forecast of growing demand for aluminium from another source. “Where goes China, India is likely to follow,” he says.

The Economist , Jul 19th 2007

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跳海

7 . 1 遊行人數究竟是 6.8 萬抑或 2 萬，民陣與警方依舊各自表述．泛民主派一眾立法會議員早前為了呼籲市民上街遊行，集體到紅磡碼頭跳海．

跳海，在去年世貿會議期間，韓農已經示範得淋漓盡致，他們令本地傳媒及一眾市民大開眼界，原來示威可以這麼 professional，這麼 discipline．泛民今次又想照辦煮碗，希望引來社會大眾及傳媒注意，只可惜事與願違．若果換上由「香港良心」、「民主女神」等女士肯紆尊降貴，穿著 Roxy 比堅尼來個下水禮，當然有睇頭有 gimmick．奈何現在由一班見慣見熟的「中男」充當此任，仲要一人一件救生衣才落水，獨給人跟風之感， 毫無新意．

其實若果真的要跳，至低限度也要「跳樓」．澳門旅遊塔 的 bungy jump 可以是一個不錯的選擇．從 233 米一躍而下之時高叫普選口號兼拉橫額，視覺效果夠哂震撼，又可表現出對爭取普選視死如歸的決心及勇氣．
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香港時下的初中生已經早熟到又索 K 水又玩 5p，泛民主派卻仍然停留於大熱天時走去浸海水，只突顯出他們不能與時並進，老套有餘．